Combining the spirit of the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, further implementing the scientific concept of development. In the face of the changes in the international situation, what direction China's financial industry will develop and related suggestions
2 thoughts on “Urgent materials for the international financial crisis and promoting the reform and development of China's financial industry!”
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Due to currency's free exchanges and relatively conservative financial development strategies, China's financial industry has less losses in the financial crisis. However, compared with the international banking industry, the overall strength of China's financial industry still has a large gap. In the current economic situation, what practical issues and dilemmas are facing China's financial industry, and what should we take? With these issues, the reporter made an interview with Yan Qingmin, the director of the Shanghai Banking Regulatory Bureau.
"Board": You are a financial supervisor who is very concerned about global changes. At present, the risks of the US CDS market have not been fully released, and Citi Group's way out has not yet been clear. The new government's rescue of the market has not clearly seen it. How can you evaluate the latest changes in the US and global financial situation?
Yan Qingmin: From the closure of New Century Financial in April 2007, the US subprime mortgage crisis has continued Seeing signs of bottom, and intensified. At present, it has spread from the financial field to the real economy, which has caused the first time since the "World War II" three major economies, the three major economies of Europe, the United States, and Japan, and further affected emerging market countries and developing countries. To this end, countries around the world have successively introduced a series of economic stimulus plans. Recently, the United States elected President Barack Obama once again proposed an expected economic stimulus plan of up to $ 775 billion, of which the tax reduction may exceed $ 300 billion. From a domestic point of view, the Central Committee has held an economic work conference, and the State Council has introduced the "national ten" of the "national ten" that expands domestic demand, the "national nine" promoted by the development, and the "financial growth" policies and plans such as the "financial 30". Although all countries are actively responding to the crisis, the large -scale international economic recession may last one to two years, and the recovery of the financial industry also takes a certain time.
"Board": Affected by the crisis, recent foreign banks have continuously cash off the Bank of China and CCB. Do you have any attention? How do you think of Huijin's relationship between A shares and foreign capital reduction and H -shares, should relevant Chinese departments adopt countermeasures?
Yan Qingmin: (Foreign banks are continuously reduced holdings) or absence of flow, and the lock -up period in the original agreement is three years. The proportion of stocks. The market is not very good now, and it is not allowed. Relatively speaking, this price is okay. The countermeasures are not talked about, because now everyone does not know if there are other deep factors in it.
For Huijin, it should be strategically corresponding to holding shares and increased holdings. In fact, we can hold a part of foreign banks (equity) so that everyone's interests are tighter. Dilute and anti -dilution, increase holdings and anti -increase, and maintain the right to speak capital through two -way reasonable interaction, and form a new and reasonable corporate governance class. I think it is strategic.
"Board": As an official who has directly supervised, participated in the reform, reorganization and listing of the Bank of ICBC, the Bank of China, and the CCB, do you have a specific evaluation of the three banks?
Yan Qingmin: The Bank of China and the CCB include ICBC. Due to the differences in customer base and growth foundation, each bank has its own characteristics. Relatively speaking, the CCB of 5 trillion assets is smaller. We believe that its operations are more stable through reform and reorganization.
The customer base of CCB is relatively concentrated. The basis of growth is mainly building enterprises. This line is relatively clear. The proportion of real estate is also moderate, including full -caliber loans of mortgage and development categories. It is expected to be at most 1/3.
If ICBC has undertaken the industrial and commercial credit separated from the Bank of China in the 1984. There are some industries that are prohibited categories, and some are high -energy, high pollution, and resource types. This must be gradually exited. The exit process is long and will form some bad loans. Through stock reform, we solved some, but still left a lot of restricted categories, like steel and electrolytic aluminum. For the real estate industry, ICBC's credit ratio is not too high.
The earliest positioning is external professional banks, with many overseas branches, involving many three -funded enterprises, import and export enterprises, and some industrial and commercial enterprises. BOC Hong Kong this time because of the mini Lehman bonds, the Hong Kong HKMA gave a profit warning.
"Board of Directors": Under the summary reflection, what are the real problems and dilemma of China's financial system? What kind of further reform is needed?
Yan Qingmin: In the 30 years of reform and opening up, China's economic development has achieved world -renowned achievements. The financial system construction and financial supervision have also made great progress, especially the dominant state -owned commercial banks After the successful listing, preliminary results have been achieved in corporate governance, internal control, accountability mechanism construction, and improvement of financial conditions, which has laid an important foundation for actively responding to the financial crisis. However, compared with the international banking industry, my country's banking industry still has a large gap in the core competitiveness of corporate governance, financial innovation capabilities, and effectiveness of risk management.
Among them, corporate governance is the most important and critical, as your "Board" magazine said, how the board of directors of Chinese characteristics play its core role.
Therefore, on the basis of system reflection and lessons of systematic reflection and learning of crisis experience, we need to continue to deepen the reform of the system and mechanism to effectively improve the development strategy of banking company governance and formulate a scientific development strategy , Strengthen comprehensive risk management, cultivate financial innovation capabilities, and speed up IT system construction. In other words, it is to do your own things and work hard to comprehensively improve the international competitiveness of the Chinese banking industry.
"Board": The lack of the banking industry's own governance is an important reason for the weak risk control ability. Chairman Liu Mingkang recently said that it is now the best time for the banking industry to improve corporate governance. How to grasp the degree of external supervision in the current situation where the board of directors is not in place and lacks independence? In today's current situation, how does the banking industry improve the level of internal governance?
Yan Qingmin: Corporate governance is the key to bank innovation and development, but it is precisely the area where the regulatory regulatory office is not within reach. What external regulatory institutes can do is often the principle of reinforcement principles. Guidelines and other good practices to strengthen the governance of corporate governance to the banking industry. More importantly, banks are essentially an information processing center. The basis of its profit is that it has more information than trading opponents and has richer and perfect information processing methods. And external regulators will never have more information content than people inside the bank.
In the reform of these five years, the board of directors of the banking industry played a part of the role, but in the process of corporate governance, the special committee under the board of directors (audit, management, strategy, salary and other functional committees) The role is not fully played, and it needs to be further improved.
Therefore, effective supervision needs to guide and urge banks to strengthen self -restraint and self -management functions. In particular, we must pay attention to the positive role of the board of directors and the professional committees set up. Structure, independence and professional quality of directors, due diligence, and the role of professional committees, in order to form internal and external force, and jointly improve the internal governance level of banks.
This is also related to our characteristics. The secretary of the party committee is usually chairman, and chairman is usually the party committee secretary, with two and two. How to play their role requires us to further explore.
"Board of Directors": For large -scale joint -stock business banks that are absolutely controlled by state -owned, in the future banking regulatory framework, will investors strengthen a comprehensive assessment of the operation of the board of directors of subordinate banks?
Yan Qingmin: There is not much assessment for it strictly now.
. Different from the state -owned assets management system, the Central Organization Department directly manages 11 banking financial institutions (workers, peasants, China Construction Communications three policy banks CITIC, Guangda China Investment), mainly cadre management.
For banks that have undergone joint -stock reforms, CIC, as investors, has no way to evaluate 100 %, can only be evaluated and measured by the three categories of these banks and measured. Its business is good or bad, including asset loan ratio, benefits of ROEROA, cost income from cost income coverage, capital adequacy ratio, etc., which is an international conventional indicator of traffic.
The banks are monopoly and liabilities. They are not competitive. They require highly monopolized and highly centralized power. It is special. Therefore, our assessment of the board of directors of the bank is different from the SASAC, and we can only sacrifice some efficiency and pursue safety.
"Board of Directors": From the perspective of bank supervisors, you have always emphasized the implementation of macro -prudential supervision. Is this a long -term persistence, or a short -term choice during the economic crisis? After the 2009 Banking Supervision System Work Conference, what are the focus of the current macro -prudential supervision?
Yan Qingmin: The financial industry is a high -liability, high leverage, and high -risk industry. For the entire economy, the financial services provided by banks and it have a public nature and strong external nature. Therefore, strengthening macro -prudential supervision is a strategy that requires long -term persistence, not a short -term choice during the current crisis. On the one hand, bank operations have obvious "pro -economic cycle" characteristics and require a macro -prudential supervision of the "counter -economic cycle"; on the other hand, it is the need to effectively prevent the system risks of banks. Under the current situation, the focus of macro -prudential supervision is to urge the banking industry to adhere to the principle of prudent operations, strengthen comprehensive risk management, and promote the stable development of the banking industry under the overall requirements of "preserving growth, promoting development (regulating structure), and risk prevention." Essence First, in accordance with the principle of "there is a pressure and distinction", through the adjustment of the credit structure, the national industrial policy is effectively implemented, and the credit risk prevention work is effectively implemented. The second is to attach great importance to the systemic risks of the financial market and effectively prevent the transmission and spread of cross -market risks. Especially for innovative financial products, such as wealth management products, it is necessary to strengthen management in accordance with the requirements of "controllable risks, calculating costs, and full disclosure of information". Third, the economic downturn is often a period of risk of operational risks, and banks need to take good care of compliance management and case prevention and control.
"Board": You believe that macro -prudential supervision should pay attention to coordination and synergy. Some Shanghai scholars have pointed out that China should establish a macro early warning mechanism for cross -departments as soon as possible. What do you think for this?
Yan Qingmin: Macro early warning is very important, but in order to truly achieve science and effectiveness, a process of constant running -in and exploration is needed. I think it can be explored from two levels: on the one hand, explore the establishment of a good consultation and coordination mechanism for cross -departments at the government level. At present, my country has multiple departments involving economic macro -control functions, such as the three macro -control departments such as the Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, and the People's Bank of China, as well as industry or industrial departments. Policy coordination and information sharing between departments are very important. On the other hand, we must give full play to the positive role of market mechanisms in macro early warning. We need to take measures to support and encourage various market entities including financial institutions such as banking industry, rating companies, consulting companies, and research institutions The macroeconomic analysis and judgment, exert the "invisible hand" in terms of rapid information and flexible response in macro early warning, realize the coordinated development and interaction between the government and the market, and improve the effectiveness of macro early warning.
"Board": You just mentioned that we must attach great importance to the systemic risks of the financial market, and the real estate market risk and credit risk are also an important aspect of macro -supervision. What are the current risk exposure and can it predict the changes in the first quarter and even the first half? As a region with high levels of openness, in the financial market, the liquidity that may occur in the financial market and the changes in the asset -liability of institutions are now corresponding to the corresponding emergency preparation?
Yan Qingmin: This year, especially in the first half of the year, it is indeed a critical period full of challenging. The impact of the international financial crisis on my country will further appear. There are some problems with wealth management products. For the real estate market, some small and medium -sized real estate developers who are not strong enough may face large cash flow pressure. At the same time, the credit risks of some imports and exports and corporate groups that have been greatly impacted will be further exposed. The Shanghai banking industry mainly actively prepares from three aspects: first, strengthen relevant pressure testing, grasp the direction and trend of risk evolution, make full -scale preparation, and go to the nuclear to sell and dumb. Disposal and response preparations; third, pay close attention to the concentration of loans and the risks of related enterprises to prevent the occurrence and emergence of systemic risks.
"Board of Directors": As part of the bank's off -table assets, the risk of wealth management products has always attracted much attention. From the perspective of supervision, how will it prevent risks?
Yan Qingmin: Due to the abundant liquidity of China, banks are trying to increase the use of billing tools; in addition, putting credit, guarantee and other businesses can also reduce the sufficient capital of capital, which can also reduce the sufficient capital to capital. Rate pressure, avoid supervision. Of course, there are some problems in the middle. For example, some wealth management products linked to the market will concentrate around the Spring Festival, especially wealth management products investing in QDII. The risk of floating losses is more prominent.
It, unlike domestic bank sales wealth management products, many banks in the world have implemented professional counters in the sales of wealth management products. The information is fully disclosed, and analysts and wealth management consultants are helped.
In supervisors to do risk prompts, and hope that the bank is "responsible" to subdivide customers and strengthen the education of investors. We have urged the banking industry to analyze and predict the products of each issue, strengthen communication and interpretation in advance, and formulate a plan for response. In the second quarter, the Banking Regulatory Department will introduce new management measures and guidelines, evaluate the qualifications of bank sales wealth management products, grading authorization, and implement selective supervision intervention.
"Board of Directors": Bill financing accounted for a lot of new loans from the bank last year from November to December. For a single bank, risks may be restricted, but because of fast transmission and discounting, the loans have been staying in the bank's balance sheet, and the growth of bill financing may promote future systemic risks. What do you think of this and what are the regulatory measures for the CBRC? rnrn 阎庆民:票据融资是企业多元化融资的一种重要方式,具有融资成本低、手续简便灵活、有利于优化银企关系以及规范企业之间债权债务关系等优势,并且Bill financing is also an important channel for the banking industry to support the development of SMEs. It is currently mainly for acceptance bills. The regulatory authorities actively encourage the standardized development of bill financing business, encourage the endorsement and transfer of eligible bills, encourage large enterprises and upstream and downstream enterprises to increase the use of bills under the current situation, support the expansion of commercial credit through bank credit, support The economy develops rapidly. At the same time, it is necessary to attach great importance to the development of bill financing business and risk issues in the bill market transactions, timely strengthen risk prompts and supervision guidance, requiring banks to further regulate the development of bill business, strengthen risk early warning functions, strengthen collection and preservation measures, effectively prevent credit risks Essence
"Board of Directors": The government encourages bank credit innovation, but it has not been advanced to the innovation of the industry (such as asset securitization). How to grasp the relationship between supervision and innovation under the new situation?
Yan Qingmin: Financial innovation is the driving force for the sustainable development of the banking industry, and it is also an inevitable requirement for better serving economic development. Financial development itself is a process of evolution of innovation development and innovative supervision, and mutual promotion, so innovation cannot be stopped. Different from the excessive financial innovation of developed countries, the current problem of financial development in my country is insufficient innovation capabilities, especially in terms of high value -added self -innovation and the risk management skills of financial innovation. The regulatory authorities will adhere to the principle of "regulatory and development, cultivate and prevent risk prevention", give play to the role of the banking industry's innovation, and guide the banking industry to properly handle the three relationships in financial innovation: First, scientifically handle short -term interests and long -term interests of long -term interests Balance, we must attach great importance to the cultivation of innovation capabilities from improving the core competitiveness of the future; the second is to pay attention to the coordinated development of the innovation of the inside and outside business innovation; the third is to attach importance to the risk assessment and moral self -discipline in the process of innovation, and strengthen the "seller has some sellers. The consciousness of responsibility, especially to strengthen the adaptive assessment of the customer.
"Board": After the government adopted for compulsory capital injection, the bank infrastructure loan was rapidly capacity in November and December, but other types of loans were obvious. The CBRC recently proposed that lending should be increased under the premise of prudential. Do you think that in order to complete political tasks, the bank will weaken risk control in the actual operation, so that a new incremental increase in non -performing assets?
Yan Qingmin: From the perspective of the country, it is a successful experience to rely on investment to drive the economy. Investment does need to rely on the construction of infrastructure to drive a large coefficient and drive the industry. As long as the funds are arranged, banks are also willing, and there is no problem of market discomfort. There is a periodic of processing and manufacturing enterprises to drive small coefficients, depending on which industries belong to. No (press the bank mission).
The bank industry, as an important part of the macroeconomic system, plays a vital central and conductive role in economic operation. The operating status of macroeconomic economic operations will directly affect the operating effectiveness of banks, and then affect the security, liquidity and profitability of bank assets. Only by ensuring the steady and rapid development of the macro economy can there be the steady development of the banking industry. This requires the banking industry to actively prepare for the various aspects of "keeping growth, promoting development, and risk prevention" in accordance with the opinions of "Article 30 of Finance". The adjustment of credit structure actively promotes the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure, and achieves the coordinated development of economic and finance. At the same time, banking financial institutions should strictly implement the "three investigations" systems in accordance with the principles of prudent operations, actively strive for initiative, realize the migration of risk management, and prevent the rebound of non -performing loans.
"Board of Directors": SME loans are always difficult. How will the banking industry help help?
Yan Qingmin: Small enterprises financing is a worldwide problem. According to the World Bank and IMF statistics, more than half of the financing of small enterprises around the world is equity financing; the other 45%is debt financing, of which nearly 20%are bank loans. Even in the financing structure of small enterprises in developed countries, the real loan ratio is very low. Due to the natural defects of small enterprises, in fact, banks are willing to loan large and small, and they are poor.
Therefore, finances must take considerable funds for guarantee, discounts and assistance funds. On this basis, bank funds play a role in grafting. If the finances are not coming out, throw the bank to the front line, and new bad debts will be formed in the future.
"Board of Directors": "Article 30 of Finance" attempts to encourage banks to increase credit distribution by establishing a interest guidance mechanism and achieve the consistency of government and bank interests. Great uncertainty. For example, the large -scale bank loans and agricultural loans are relaxed from policy, taxation and other aspects of policy, taxation, etc., but how to operate the specific operation, who finally pays? How can the "degree" of decentralization banks be grasped? What do you think of the progress and prospects of the interest guidance mechanism?
Yan Qingmin: The use of "Article 30 of Finance" for the incentive guidance mechanism fully reflects the recognition of market mechanisms and financial institutions' market entities. Active measures will help the banking financial institutions to increase credit support for SMEs and agricultural -related fields, and it is more conducive to further promoting the process of economic marketization. Although the relevant policies and measures have not been further clearly refined due to time limit, all relevant departments are in a hurry to demonstrate and formulate supporting policies. It is believed that relevant policies will be clarified as soon as possible. It is believed that through the introduction of the above -mentioned supporting policies, it will further promote banking institutions to increase credit support, accelerate the verification of bad accounts, consolidate the business foundation, and promote the sustainable development of banking financial institutions.
"Board": In 2009, the banking industry will face higher credit costs, credit risks, and lower net interest margins. The growth rate of net profit in the industry slows down, and the non -performing loan rate will rise. What are your suggestions for the downturn of the banking industry (especially in the first half of this year)?
Yan Qingmin: This year, especially the economic situation in the first half of the year may be more severe, and the corresponding risks will be further exposed. The requirements of development and risk prevention, adhere to the principle of "keeping pressure, distinguish between", strengthen and improve credit services, and meet the needs of reasonable capital. Especially companies with good fundamentals, good credit records, market, competitive but temporary business or financial difficulties must give credit support. The second is to strengthen the innovation of non -credit services and continue to expand the development space of intermediate business, such as consulting business, agency business, etc., further optimize the banking income structure, and enhance the stability of bank income. The third is to have a certain tolerance in supervision, which is also a practical practice. In accordance with the continuous supervision requirements of "accurate category -full -time allocation -do real profit -capital adequacy ratio reaching standards", consolidate the foundation of sustainable development, and ensure stable operations.
"Board": In the last question, after a series of policy guidance and reforms, what vision do you have about foreseeable future?
Yan Qingmin: In the past two years, it has been reformed by crisis. First of all, we must deepen reform, the second to expand opening, and the third is to continue to promote innovation. The bank does not follow the road of reform and opening up and innovation, and it has always been unable to solve the problem of banks' own institutional mechanisms. After becoming a listed company, the market value is high, which does not mean the management level. The ultimate attention is competitive.
[Edit this paragraph] Nine pay attention to the financial crisis
1: Do not resign, do not change jobs, do not switch career, do not start a business;
: Back up a few more company positions you can go;
3: Do not take the initiative to ask the boss to increase their wages, and the layoffs often start from the high salary;
4: Help friends pay more attention to work opportunities and introduce more. When it is the turn to find a job, there will be friends to help you; r; n 5: Save money, buy national debt, or two currency deposits, do not buy stocks;
6: Money to parents every month, the economy is not good, the worse people who are poor;
: The late stage of the crisis is the most sad, and it has not started yet, don't feel strong;
8: Divorce;
9: Even if you haven't felt the crisis, you should have tight days. Use 70%of the previous 70%of the previous 70%of the previous 70%. Money lives now.
Is what do we need to do in the financial crisis
The words that people often say is that while God closes a door for you, it will also open a window for you. What I want to say is that when the door in front of us is closed, I hope everyone should not be too panic.
The financial crisis occurred in the unusual year of 2008. It is not what someone's wishes can be determined. In other words, it is inevitable. We should not do many things during the financial crisis. But there are always things we can do.
For example:
1. We can hide the light. Taking myself as an example, I am a teacher now, and this profession is really not irritating. I have always wanted to switch, but now I am not suitable for what I do, so I just buy a few books I want to learn and watch some related videos. Evilly make up for some knowledge. When the economy is going to turn, you can shoot immediately. After all, opportunities are prepared for those who are prepared.
2. What the state has to do is to turn the crisis into a turnaround, and what our people have to do is to find business opportunities in the crisis. Everything has its value, whether it is a good thing or bad.
when can the financial crisis be over
This should be the most anticipated, but it is really not the same as it happens as it happens. I hope Obama can give you a satisfactory reply. 65%of the US people opposed the US government's 700 billion US dollars. The American people pointed out that the big banks first advocated capitalist laborer expansion. Now they have asked the capitalists of the big banks in the form of socialism to save the money of the national treasury. In addition, some scholars internationally believe that $ 700 billion is not enough.
[Edit this paragraph] Save the two routes of the crisis
We every time there is a crisis in the United States, public opinion predicts whether the United States will pass the crisis through war. Similar cases. One of the most recently was the air strike of the Clinton government launched the air strike code code -named "Desert Fox" in 1998. Many people believe that the military blow launched on December 17th of that year was to transfer the US's attention to the case of Leinuski in the United States.
It, since the period of colonialism, there are often western countries to transfer the domestic crisis through war or conflict, and the crisis has often become the source of war. Specifically, this "transfer" method can usually be divided into two categories, one is indirect route, that is, to create conflicts or provoke war in other regions, and to attract water; Shirty.
What is the interests of passing the crisis through the war? It can be explained from the following aspects:
It politically, war can play a role in dissolving domestic social pressure and shifting the focus of domestic attention. A large -scale war will also reduce the expectations of residents to domestic people's livelihood to some extent. The war is often accompanied by the strengthening of domestic control. For example, after the Bush administration launched the "anti -terrorism war", through the "Patriot Act" and other means, it greatly strengthened the control of public opinion and social life. This social control can also be used to prevent the negative impact of the domestic economic crisis from another side.
It economically, war can artificially cause domestic economic mobilization, and the expansion of the military industry can greatly drive domestic demand and expand employment. The military industry complex and its response political forces often support the government's policies to expand military reserve.
In from the perspective of the driving effect of the military industry, at present, every $ 130 billion in the US military factories can directly drive GDP to increase by one percentage point, and every $ 1 billion in military production can be added. Thousands of employment opportunities. This has not been calculated by the indirect pull effect of the general industry. More importantly, in the current situation, the production of military products can directly drive the most important manufacturing industry, such as cars, airplanes, machinery and other industries due to financial crisis. Essence
The premise of stimulating the economy of military workers is that they can finally obtain benefits through war means, otherwise they will face an embarrassing situation of no benefit. In the early days of colonialism and imperialism, each dynasty war and national war were accompanied by huge war compensation. After the Second World War, the income of the war appeared in a more "hidden" form. It is no longer as "naked" as "naked" in the past. For example, it seizes the main country's mineral resources, occupy the market of the object country, and divide the objects of national and foreign assets.
This should be pointed out that the United States is currently in a state of war. However, the war between Iraq and Afghanistan was obviously worthless, especially the proportion of the two wars was too high, which hindered the army's replacement process and influenced the interests of military enterprises. Even from this perspective, the United States withdrawn from Iraq is motivated. Perhaps the withdrawal from Iraq and looking for new opponents will be more in line with the "profit -making profit" strategy in the traditional sense. In other parts of the world, there are still potential hotspots, which may become the object of such strategies.
The strategy of provoking conflicts in other countries can also bring greater political and economic benefits. For example, the political dependence of conflict on the country will deepen the political dependence of the country, and the major country is usually the main military production country. The price sells its foreign assets cash. During the Japan -Russia War, Japan had borrowed a lot from Britain and the United States. In almost previous wars, there were a group of countries that made a lot of profits due to the sale of military fires, and the image of the beneficiaries of the war was "loaded into history."